One of the stranger evaluations people face this cycle is Joe Milton III, the 6’5 245 lb Quarterback out of Tennessee. Milton possesses easily the most physical talent of any QB prospect in this class and outside of Anthony Richardson, it’s hard to think of any QB prospect since Josh Allen that possesses the pure physical attributes Milton does. So why isn’t Milton a top 5 pick? Why isn’t Milton the Heisman trophy winner? Why doesn’t Milton have unprecedented stats? These are all questions that should be asked about a prospect with the raw physical skills of Joe Milton.
The answer to those questions, in my view, is that Joe Milton isn’t a Quarterback. I see Milton as an intriguing project prospect as a tight end. The most impressive part of Milton’s game was his ability to run. I know the arm is what’s talked about, but someone who is his size shouldn’t be able to move as fast as Milton does. This speed I believe is more than sufficient to be able to win 1 on 1 matchups with safeties and linebackers. This was on full display during his 81-yard TD run against UTSA where Milton reached 21.3 MPH. One may ask, why I don’t see Milton as a player that’s capable of playing Quarterback, here’s why. The processor and decision-making of Milton fall extremely below what even a backup NFL quarterback should possess. Milton was asked in most plays just to read one side of the football field and if he didn’t like it, just to take off. I believe Josh Heupel did an excellent job of taking mental pressure off his QB with the quick, half-field read patterns he designed, yet it still didn’t click for Milton. He’d have plays where he’d pass up an open man and try and run, he would lock on to one read and never try and fool the defense with his eyes. He’d get substantial cushion from every DB on the field and instead of taking the easy throw, he’d force a deep ball that just wasn’t there.
What far and away makes Milton incapable of playing QB in the NFL in my eyes, however, is Milton’s accuracy. I don’t mean to go in on the prospect, but the accuracy with Milton is abysmal. I encourage readers to go and watch Milton in the Missouri game. The number of straight-up misses he put on tape was quite concerning. I don’t think there’s an area on the football field where Milton displays even good accuracy. There’s just so much inconsistency there with a 6th-year player that it makes it almost impossible to project enough development while he’s still in his prime.
The issue with these types of project players that change positions is that you see a very low success rate with them. The College QB to NFL Tight End transition has worked well in a few cases over the last decade with Taysom Hill and Logan Thomas coming to mind. A creative offensive mind could use Milton in a Taysom Hill-type role where Milton could have a couple of opportunities a season to throw the football but be used as a primary runner and receiver. Milton, I don’t believe, is nearly as physical as Taysom Hill but Milton shows more speed on tape to me.
The overarching negative analysis of Joe Milton will be apparent as we move closer to the NFL draft. I think this is a player who cannot play QB in the NFL, however, I think someone with that level of athleticism can make an impact on an offense in some way. I like Milton as a late-day 3 flier into one of these young offensive coaches’ schemes that can mold him into a true gadget player across their offense. Milton is a great kid and has a great locker room reputation.
He pairs that with elite athletic traits and for those reasons I see Milton being an NFL draft pick in April.